Chapter 1: The Concepts and Problems (Problems 6 thru 14)

6. Then I ran into to the “All – American” dilemma.  KC Jones was a great player for the San Francisco Dons.  He was a second team consensus All – American (1955-56).  He was part of the Olympic team and went on to win eight NBA championships along side his college teammate, Bill Russell.  He has a fantastic and well-deserved reputation.  Yet, I have a real problem.  KC Jones’ statistics are not stellar.  He averaged only 9.8 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, and yet he was put on the second team All–American squad.  Will Averitt, a six foot one inch guard for Pepperdine averaged 31.4 points a game, and 4.9 rebounds per game.  He was not named a consensus All–American.  Do I take KC Jones because a group of people voted him into an exclusive club (even though his numbers are far lower than another player’s who was not voted into the club) or do I put Mr. Averitt on the team even though he was not put into the exclusive club? As I dug deeper into the research, I found that KC Jones was known as a defensive specialist.  How do I rate this?  Nobody kept stats about defensive stops, or steals made, or an opponent’s frustration level, back in 1955.  It was merely conjecture on the part of the writers and those that watched KC Jones play.  I decided that I would have to choose my thirteen players based on the statistics they had earned, not the post-season awards they were given.  Now, I want to make this point very clear.  I chose players based on three criteria, their statistics, the position they played, and creating a balanced team.  Later, when the computer program that will simulate the games is written, it will take into account the fact that a player was chosen for post-season awards.  More about this later.

7. My next dilemma was deciding how many of each position to have on the team.  I started with the premise that each team will be made up of thirteen players.  How those thirteen should be broken down was the next question.  How many true post players should I have?  Are two point guards enough?  I decided I would try and follow this very unscientific break down; two post players, three power forwards, three small forwards, three shooting guards, and two point guards.  This was not a hard and fast rule.  In some situations the conferences have enough post players for me to select two of them. In other conferences I select three point guards.  

For example, many of the newer conferences have not had true post players in the truest definition of “post” player (The Wilt Chamberlain example), or they only had one.   So, with flexibility in mind, these were the guidelines I tried to go by for each conference.  If I had a conference with six outstanding guards, and it was clear to me, that a choice for a forward would remove one of those guards, and this would hurt the team, I would leave the forward off.  

8. The “Older Player” dilemma.  I have discovered that the players from the 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s are at a distinct disadvantage.  During those decades it was not the habit, which it is today, to keep records.  For example, let us look at the record of Dan Issel.  Dan Issel averaged 25.8 ppg and 13.0 rpg, yet there is no college record, that I can find, that tells us his per game averages for assists, steals, or blocks.  Dan Issel played from 1967 to 1969.  Finding information for players prior to the sixties is even more difficult.  Kentucky great Alex Groza played from 1944 to 1948.  Alex was a great basketball player but, unfortunately, record keeping was spotty and this was a real problem.  This makes it extremely difficult to compare one player from the 1950s to a player from the 1990s.  If I don’t have all the data, picking one player over another player becomes a very real problem.  What do I do?  Do I give these players a zero for assists knowing damn well that they would have made many assists?  Sorry, not going to happen.  I project those numbers across the board to the average.  Nothing higher, nothing lower.  All numbers printed in red will be averages.  I figured averages separately for guards, forwards, and centers.

There is an even greater problem for the players from the 30s and Hank Luisetti is the perfect example of this problem.  Hank Luisetti was a three-time consensus All-American at Stanford.  I have read two or three books that credit Hank with inventing the modern jump shot.  The problem I had to work through though for Hank is that when he played and averaged 16.1 points per game he did so at a time when after every made basket the ball was taken back to center court for a jump ball (and no 3-point line).  There was NO alternating possession.  Think about this for a minute.  Mr. Luisetti averaged 16.1 per game at a time when his team may have had the ball 20 to 30 percent less than teams do today (or Vice Versa).  Let us compare that situation for, lets say, Mark Macon from Temple University.  Mark averaged 20.7 points per game and 5.6 rebounds per game.  If, and it is a big “if,” Mark’s team got the ball just 15% less than they do in a normal game his average statistics, over a four year career, may have been 15 percent less.  20.7 points per game becomes 17.6 points per game, and his 5.6 rebounds per game become 4.8 rebounds per game.  What do I do?  Well, this is how I did it.  If Hank Luisetti averaged 16.1 points per game at a time when one, there was no shot clock, two, there was after every made basket a jump ball, three, there was no three point line, and four, when early play designs took 50 to 120 seconds to set the offensive play in motion before the shot, then I figure that in today’s game that translates into about a 25% increase in statistics.  So, Hank’s 16.1 becomes 20.1.  Hello Hank Luisetti, you made the team.

9. Dual membership?  Are you kidding me?  No, I am not kidding.  According to Winston-Salem State Interim Athletic Media Relations Director, Trevin Goodwin, Winston-Salem was in both the NAIA and the NCAA from 1953 to 1983.  This means I have one hellish problem with Earl “The Pearl” Monroe.  Where do I put him?  Because Winston-Salem is not known as a basketball power, not known as a Mid-Major, and not even a “low” major, and the fact that Earl Monroe was so damn good, I have decided to put Winston-Salem, and Mr. Monroe, in the NAIA division.

10.  What value do I give rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks?  Let us look at an example of what I am talking about.  Dominique Wilkins of Georgia averaged 21.6 ppg and 7.5 rebounds per game.  Leon Douglas of Alabama had a lower points per game average, 17.2, but a higher rebounding average, 11.5.  How much is a rebound worth?  Is it worth two points, one point, or somewhere in-between?  The same question can be asked of steals (but not for blocks because there is no guarantee that the team that blocked the shot also recovered the ball).  I decided after much thought of saying that a rebound and steal were worth 1 point each.  Assists I used as tiebreakers between players, especially guards.

11.  Up until 1972, freshmen were not generally eligible to play basketball.  This causes a problem.  All players after 1972 have the opportunity to have four years to build a statistical resume’.  Let us say that a player is the all time leading scorer for a conference (Tyler Hansbrough in the ACC).  You may ask “How could it be possible to leave the ACC’s all time leading scorer off of this list?”  Well, folks, he had four years to accumulate those point while many a player before 1972 only had three years.  This project is not about total points, rebounds, or assists.  This is much more about what you did as an average.

Now, of course this makes me into a hypocrite.  Earlier I mentioned Bob Kurland and the problem of there being different tactics used by the opposing team to try and stop the scoring of Kurland.  This included stalling the game.  Thus Kurland’s statistics are lower.  I know, I know, this is a problem.  But, fortunately for me, this is my book and I get the final say.  So, I say that because we are comparing players from different eras of college basketball, with different rules and concepts I am forced to use judgment to build these teams.  And the judgment I have chosen to use is my own.  Please, feel free to disagree with me.  You can email me at Thanksforyourinsight@fullofscat.com.

12.  Choosing the head coach and assistant coach was so very intriguing.  Do I choose the coaches based on their overall coaching record?  Or should it be his (their) coaching record while coaching in that specific conference?  Should I choose the coach based on their accumulated conference and tournament titles?  Maybe I should choose them based strictly on their NCAA or NIT post-season titles or results (final four appearances).  

Also, I set myself up with a problem because earlier I chose to be careful not to take a player just because he had one great season.  Would I be a hypocrite if I took a coach based on his record in that one conference and this person only coached one year?  For example, Keno Davis was the head coach of Drake for only one season.  Coach Davis’s record for that one season was 28 wins and 5 losses and this is an overall winning percentage of 85%.  That same season, Coach Davis had 18 wins and only 3 losses in the Missouri Valley Conference.  This is a conference winning percentage of 86%.  This is the best winning percentage in the Missouri Valley Conference.  At the end of that season Providence University lured Coach Davis to be their head coach.

Does this fantastic one season winning percentage mean that Keno Davis is the greatest coach the Missouri Valley Conference has ever had?  I will respectfully say, “I don’t think so.”  This 86% winning percentage is better than the legendary coach Forrest “Phog” Allen.  Coach Phog Allen had nine seasons coaching in the Missouri Valley Conference.  His record during that time was a fantastic 115 wins and 31 losses.  This is a conference winning percentage of 79%.

Well, I have decided that I will follow the same criteria for the choosing of coaches that I used for the players; I will choose the coach based on percentages and I will have to use judgment to make sure I am not choosing a coach based on one or two spectacular seasons.  So, sorry Coach Keno Davis, you are not my choice for the Missouri Valley Conference coach.

There is also another possibility when it comes to coaches... a coach could be chosen for two or more separate conferences.  It would take a coach who is known for moving around and for winning...hello John Calipari.  It could also be a coach that stayed at one school but that school changed conferences...hello to you as well Phog Allen.

I decided that I would use the following criteria for choosing the head and assistant coach:  

1. At least four years coaching in that conference.  (Which means I must leave out Bob Vanatta from Southwest Missouri State.  Coach Vanatta went 73 and 12  (86%) in three years at SW Missouri State, and won 2 NAIA National Championships.
2. Highest winning percentage will be the head coach.
3. Second highest winning percentage will be the assistant coach.
4. The first tiebreaker will be the number of conference championships.
5. The second tiebreaker will be number of post-season accomplishments.

By the way, I am not looking forward to trying to find the best NAIA coach.  There will be thousands of them, some will have moved into the NCAA, and we already know that the NAIA was not stellar in keeping records or in responding to requests for information.

13.  The next problem:  How do I seed the teams?  This problem did not arise until I completed my player selections, then it dawned on me.  I asked myself, “Should I seed them?  Does this make a difference?”  After thinking about this for several weeks I came to the conclusion that it does make a difference and that I will need to seed the teams.  Just by using the “eye test” any rational thinking person would see that some teams are stronger than others.  I would be grossly unfair to have two number 1 seeds face off in the first round.  This will allow another weaker conference a chance to move on because they played someone weaker when rightfully they should have been put up against a stronger team.

14. The last problem I faced is deciding what would be the ending year for my research.  I knew that it would take time (most likely years) to identify players and coaches and to dig into their statistical background.  What do I do if after I have done all my research and I am on the last chapter of my book, the chapter about the hypothetical games that are played, and out of the Big 12 conference comes a new player who is lighting up the college basketball world?  Do I drop a player already chosen for the new kid?  I decided on an ending year of the 2010 - 2011 collegiate basketball ball season.